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A key feature is that the unit of analysis (e.g. a city, a region or a
country) exists within a broader frame of reference that strongly influences
it (e.g. a
national productive system or the world economy). It is based on the
principle that total change can be disaggregated into contributing factors
and any change that can not be accounted for by these factors can be
interpreted as the “local contribution” to that total change.
This method has been subject to many refinements. Because the objectives of
this paper are both didactic and analytic, traditional Shift-Share Analysis
is applied to international trade. It uses the “constant market share”
assumption by decomposing the growth of exports into four separate
components: a global component (GLOBO) indicating changes due to overall
growth of world trade, a geographical component (GEO) indicating changes due
to the country's distribution of trading partners, a product composition
component (COMPO) indicating growth due to the mix of products exported, and
a residual term (the “local” contribution) indicating changes in
competitiveness, or performance (PERFO). The first 3 components, GLOBO,
COMPO and GEO all relate to the “expected change in trade” should trade
change proportionally. The fourth and residual component, PERFO, refers to
that part of the change in trade that “shifts away” from expected
proportional changes, hence the term “Shift-Share Analysis”.
This paper will analyse a change or “shift” in shares in trade (particularly
exports) of different economies. By focusing on selected time periods and
using the PERFO indicator, the method will show what industries shift away
from the expected change in trade, which economies have experienced such
shifts in their industries, and to which regions.
Nº: ERSD-2009-14
Autores:
Ninez Piezas-Jerbi— WTO
Coleman Nee — WTO
Fecha de
redacción: diciembre de 2009
Palabras clave:
Shift-Share Analysis, International Trade.
Código JEL:
C49, F13, F14
Declinación de responsabilidad volver al principio
Este es un documento de trabajo y
se refiere, por consiguiente, a un estudio en curso. Refleja las opiniones
personales de funcionarios o especialistas invitados y es el resultado de
trabajos de investigación profesionales. No pretende reflejar la posición
o las opiniones de la OMC o de sus Miembros ni la posición oficial de
ningún funcionario. Los errores que puedan existir son responsabilidad de
los autores. Pueden obtenerse ejemplares de este documento de trabajo en
la Secretaría de la División, en la dirección siguiente: División de
Desarrollo y Estudios Económicos, Organización Mundial del Comercio, rue
de Lausanne 154, CH-1211 Ginebra 21, Suiza. Sírvanse indicar en su
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